Emirates NBA Cup Championship preview: Thunder, Bucks and a prediction
A simple way to frame this finale of the Emirates NBA Cup is by age and experience. The Milwaukee Bucks are built around a core of veterans, All-Stars and NBA championship ring bearers. The Oklahoma City Thunder are young and ascending, on pace to snag the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed for the second consecutive season after rising from three season’s worth of ashes (64 total games under .500).
But backstories and life cycles won’t matter much when the ball goes up Tuesday at T-Mobile Arena (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
There is a trophy to be won, a fat payday for the losers ($205,988 per player), and an even fatter one ($514,971) for the winners. And an outcome that, while it won’t count in the regular season standings, could serve as a good gut check now and momentum toward something bigger come spring.
“It just comes down to one game and that’s it,” Milwaukee guard Damian Lillard said Monday. “I don’t think nobody, at least with us, is looking at it like, ‘Oh, we old and all that and they young.’”
Same for Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
“To be completely honest with you, I don’t differentiate games on who I play against,” he said. “If we play the worst team in the league, the best team in the league, I’m trying to take their head off.”
That’s the spirit. The Thunder and the Bucks enter as two of the hottest teams in the league, 12-3 in their last 15 games. Gilgeous-Alexander and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo are strong early Kia MVP candidates, positioned to claim the tournament’s MVP honor too with a victory.
How the Thunder have fared in NBA Cup play so far
OKC has been the same team in its Cup run as it was through the season’s first eight weeks, ranking eighth offensively, first defensively and first in net rating. It breezed through a generally soft West Group B, beating the Lakers, the Jazz, and the Kevin Durant/Bradley Beal-less Suns.
But the Knockout Rounds offered tests with Dallas and Houston, and the Thunder aced both. They miss Chet Holmgren (hip fracture) on the court, but haven’t sagged; after going 8-2 with Holmgren, they are 12-3 in his absence.
Difference makers for the Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: He has boosted his scoring average in Cup play, averaging 32.2 points with 6.2 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game while shooting at a 50-40-90 rate in these six games. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 39 on 15-for-23 accuracy in the quarterfinals to eliminate Dallas, then had 32 in the semifinals against Houston.
Isaiah Hartenstein: The team’s new big man has been invaluable, averaging 11.5 ppg on 54.1% shooting and grabbing 11 rpg with 2.8 bpg in Cup games. He has won over Thunder teammates with his screens, passing and disregard for individual acclaim, all while helping them to a 9-1 record since his injury-delayed start to the season.
How the Bucks have fared in NBA Cup play so far
The Cup came along at the right time for Milwaukee, which began the season 2-8 and was eager, even desperate, for a renewed focus. The Bucks’ 11th game was their Cup opener against Toronto, which jump-started a 9-1 streak.
With consistent shooting and more aggressive defense, Milwaukee has improved in Cup play to seventh offensively, fifth defensively and second in net rating, compared to 11th, 13th and 14th overall. They’ve only had veteran wing Khris Middleton for four rusty, minutes-restricted games after he missed the first 21 recovering from offseason ankle surgery.
Difference makers for the Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo: “The Greek Freak” has been scoring (32.7 ppg) and shooting (61.4%) better than in his two Kia MVP seasons. He’s a fearsome force at both ends (3.8 blocks/steals in Cup play), and with 23, he is two games shy of tying the NBA record for most consecutive games with at least 20 points on 50% accuracy or better.
Damian Lillard: The point guard has dialed up his performances in the Cup as well, averaging 28.2 ppg vs. 25.7 ppg overall. He and Antetokounmpo are the highest-scoring tandem in the NBA, combining for 58.4 ppg. Gilgeous-Alexander and teammate Jalen Williams rank fourth at 52.4 ppg.
Head-to-head record
This is the teams’ first meeting this season, with their two regular-season meetings scheduled for Feb. 3 in OKC and March 16 in Milwaukee. They split a pair last season. The most recent was on April 12, when the Bucks lost on the Thunder’s court without Antetokounmpo or Lillard.
But OKC coach Mark Daigneault felt the Thunder’s March 24 loss at Fiserv Forum was pivotal for his young crew.
“They really took it to us, and it was a great game for us,” Daigneault said. “It was like water in the face for us. … It really informed us [of] the level of physicality, focus, everything you need to win against a good team.”